The most pessimistic scenario mapped by the LSHTM modellers – “high immune escape and lower effectiveness of boosters” – projected a wave of infection around “twice as high” as that in January this year, if no additional measures are taken. Such measures would need to be “equivalent in stringency” to step two of the government’s Covid-19 roadmap, which involved restrictions on indoor hospitality and gathering sizes, as well as the closure of some entertainment venues including cinemas, children’s play centres and hotels. ![]() The researchers said that bringing in further control measures in early 2022 “would be sufficient to substantially control this wave, reducing hospitalisations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600”. This scenario was based on no additional measures being implemented other than the government’s current Plan B policy, which includes compulsory face masks in most public places, Covid passes for nightclubs and other large venues, and people working from home again where possible. The most optimistic scenario from LSHTM – “low immune escape of Omicron and high effectiveness of boosters” – projected a wave of infection that could lead to more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions and between 19,500 and 28,700 deaths from 1 December up to 30 April next year. However, other experts have warned that the data on which the predictions is “sketchy”. “The results project a wave of Covid-19 transmission for all scenarios considered, with varying levels of infections, hospital admissions, and mortality,” the researchers wrote. The team behind the new study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, used the latest experimental data on Omicron’s “antibody-evading characteristics” to map out possible scenarios for the spread of the new strain. ![]() The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) research suggests that the Omicron variant could lead to “higher levels of cases and hospitalisations” in England than in January 2021, when most of the UK was in lockdown.Īnd in a worst-case scenario, Covid could claim around 75,000 lives between now and April – “a wave of fatalities higher than that seen during last winter”, said The Independent. Will the Omicron variant trigger a lockdown before Christmas?.‘Omicron tidal wave’: will schools be forced to close again?.Why the risk of Covid reinfection from Omicron appears higher than Delta.
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